Carbon Intensity Trajectories in EU Shipping: A Seven-Year Analysis of MRV Data

This study analyzes carbon intensity trends across five major ship types calling at EU ports using seven years of official EU MRV data (2018-2024). The dataset comprises 69,566 ship-year observations covering bulk carriers, container ships, oil tankers, chemical tankers, and general cargo ships. Linear regression analysis reveals heterogeneous decarbonization patterns: chemical tankers demonstrate the strongest improvement (−10.8%, R²=0.932, p<0.001), followed by oil tankers (−7.2%, p<0.01) and bulk carriers (−8.9%, p<0.1). Container ships show a modest reduction (−6.4%) without statistical significance, while general cargo ships exhibit near-complete stagnation (−0.3%). The CII regulation's 2023 implementation coincided with efficiency gains across most categories, though container ships experienced rebound effects in 2024. Gap analysis against IMO's 2030 target of 20% reduction reveals critical compliance challenges: container ships require 3.3% annual improvement, triple their historical rate, while general cargo ships face a 20.4% gap with no observable trend. These findings highlight the case for ship-type-specific policy interventions, particularly for container shipping given its disproportionate emission footprint (53% of emissions from 20% of vessels).